Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.562862 2.993074 3.470170 4.038067 4.695243 5.431452 6.318441
2025-12-21 1.863569 2.429393 3.125023 4.041247 5.214444 6.664478 8.591067
2025-12-28 1.553605 2.215562 3.100519 4.365505 6.122406 8.470951 11.843232
2026-01-04 1.271289 1.957227 2.941919 4.450351 6.693571 9.895417 14.800060
2026-01-11 1.068098 1.758313 2.812607 4.527733 7.233559 11.319833 17.936020
2026-01-18 0.902574 1.578249 2.669522 4.542968 7.658391 12.604860 21.016519
2026-01-25 0.764921 1.413874 2.516993 4.506296 7.976933 13.743620 23.995287
2026-02-01 0.620575 1.209306 2.259861 4.244741 7.867997 14.151157 25.795946
2026-02-08 0.522376 1.069333 2.090426 4.104816 7.939010 14.854970 28.172603
2026-02-15 0.455435 0.976263 1.990436 4.073296 8.194768 15.904817 31.285698
2026-02-22 0.420138 0.939778 1.991737 4.233652 8.830703 17.721974 36.041013
2026-03-01 0.371441 0.866452 1.907588 4.208472 9.093755 18.855007 39.608739
2026-03-08 0.326208 0.794754 1.819950 4.172090 9.348539 20.042843 43.524511
2026-03-15 0.289760 0.736747 1.753378 4.172866 9.686968 21.454908 48.114358
2026-03-22 0.280985 0.742718 1.830437 4.506389 10.800633 24.632447 56.860938
2026-03-29 0.256753 0.706032 1.802877 4.593561 11.370740 26.710305 63.478886
2026-04-05 0.234945 0.671352 1.774283 4.673238 11.933763 28.841478 70.487706
2026-04-12 0.212405 0.630356 1.723214 4.688908 12.344281 30.674018 77.038699
2026-04-19 0.190146 0.585770 1.655519 4.651085 12.615987 32.212843 83.086659
2026-04-26 0.161077 0.515820 1.508891 4.381405 12.255830 32.179850 85.300579
2026-05-03 0.140811 0.467882 1.414214 4.237128 12.202588 32.897160 89.478368
2026-05-10 0.126976 0.436973 1.362413 4.204626 12.446516 34.399744 95.860562
2026-05-17 0.120896 0.429653 1.378187 4.369969 13.264400 37.499737 106.826698